Danske Bank: Market movers today

-The German trade balance for June is expected to show an increase in exports and imports after both figures declined in May. Imports were weak during the first two months of Q2, likely reflecting some softness in domestic demand in Germany.

-On the other hand, exports have strengthened a bit after the slowing of the US and China in early 2014 resulted in weak exports in end-Q1. These trends mean net exports could give a positive contribution to German GDP growth in Q2.

-French industrial production is set to have increased in June but it could end up being weaker than expected. Industrial production points to a decline in GDP growthbut private consumption is likely to have increased and we expect slightly higher activity in Q2.

-In the US, unit labour cost in the second quarter is due for release and we estimate a modest increase of 1.6% which is a bit higher than consensus at 1.1%.

-Yesterday, we saw yet another poor spread performance for peripheral bonds with 10Y Spain and Italy widening 8bp and 10bp against Germany. Spain saw decent demand at the auctions yesterday, whereas Italy still suffers after the very weak growth numbers earlier this week and the otherwise very poor risk sentiment.

-German Bunds set another new record high (low in yield) following the ECB meeting, which brought little new. Today, there are no auctions to follow in the euro govie markets and focus is on the consequences of the Russian import restrictions. Note in that respect that Finland - that has one of the closest trade links with Russia in the eurozone - did not spread out at all against Germany yesterday