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Forex is simply a term referring/the exchange of foreign currencies. The Forex market is the marketplace where world currencies are traded. There are many factors that can affect foreign exchange rates, including interest rates, inflation, political conditions, economic growth and national trade balances.
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-AUD/USD: 0.9238 - 0.9292 overnight range. Broad based USD strength on hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and soft China HSBC mfg PMI takes spot lower. Crucial support at 0.9203 (early May low) to provide supp ahead of Yellen presser tomorrow.
-AUD/USD: 0.9309-0.9334 overnight range. A fourth day of gains for spot supported by lower US 10y yields and the 20% collapse this week in the VIX. Resistance 0.9338/70. RBA governor Stevens' semi-annual testimony in focus next week.
-AUD/USD: 0.9248 - 0.9269 overnight range. Strong NAB business confidence/conditions reduces chances of an RBA rate cut, but fails to provide any boost to AUD bid. Are traders positioning for stronger US retail sales data tomorrow? Supp 0.9240/00.
-AUD/USD: 0.9239 - 0.9273 overnight range. Spot breaches 0.9250 on risk off and RBA lowering of GDP and inflation forecast.
-Deeper correction if the 0.9200-0.9220 support area gives away. China July CPI data due tomorrow (cons 2.3% yoy).
-AUD/USD: 0.9292 - 0.9309 overnight range. Spot caught small bid in Asia largely helped by AUD/NZD buying after RBNZ's Wheelers kiwi jawboning. Downside will not give way until US yields move into the clear and prompts fresh USD buying.
-AUD: The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) secret hopes have been realised over the past few days: the normalisation of monetary policy in the US is leading to an appreciation of the USD and a depreciation of the AUD. As a result there is less need for the RBA to speak out against a strong AUD at tomorrow's rate meeting, which the bank had already refrained from in early July. The fact that the latest economic data was mixed, points towards a continued neutral RBA approach with unchanged key rates of 2.5%.
-The structural changes away from the mining sector and towards other sectors are making good progress, as consumer and business sentiment illustrate. Moreover at 3%, inflation has now reached the upper end of the RBA's target corridor of 2-3%, with core inflation even coming in above its own expectations. However, the latest labour market report came as a disappointment.
-At the same time the prices for commodities that are important for Australia are falling whereas structural changes result in lower investment in the mining sector which points towards a more cautious economic development. Even if it is clear that the RBA will have to hike the key rate at some stage due to inflationary developments it is still much too early now.
-The low interest rate environment also suggests that the RBA will not take any measures for the time being as a more hawkish approach would also lead to AUD appreciation. And that in turn would put pressure on the companies working outside the mining sector.
-In the end everything is working out very well for the RBA: the AUD eases even without further strong verbal intervention, monetary policy remains stimulating and supports structural changes, even if they are progressing slowly. AUD-USD is likely to remain in a 0.92-0.95 range. The risks in AUD-UDS are at the lower end.
-AUD/USD: 0.9306 - 0.9333 overnight range. Spot locked in a tight range ahead of RBA and employment, small bid on stronger June retail sales data (+0.6% mom). Support 0. to keep cash rate target unchanged at 2.50% tonight.
-AUD/USD: 0.9385 - 0.9403 overnight range. We favour downside on US GDP and nfp. Key support 0.9323. For EUR/AUD a third consecutive close below 1.43 shows the negative bias is intact. Supp 1.4220/1.4150. AUD/NZD explodes above 1.10.
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-AUD/USD: 0.9384 - 0.9401 overnight range. IMM AUD long positions rise to highest level in 15-months. Beware of AUD jawboning by RBA's Stevens and Debelle tomorrow, before Q2 CPI on Wednesday. Support 0.9323. EUR/AUD supp 1.4361.
Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-AUD/USD: 0.9353 - 0.9382 overnight range. Spot trading with a positive bias ahead of tomorrow's A$1.5bn 5y govt bond sale. Support 0.9323. EUR/AUD tracking lower. Support 1.4350. NZD/USD extends losses after yesterday's CPI miss. Supp 0.8570.
